Browsing Tag

interest rates

Dreams of a Second Half Recovery

As I write this, Washington is fixated on the congressional testimony of Robert Mueller. My attention is elsewhere though. For me, it's the economy that matters. Over the past two weeks, we have had a "recession watch" on Real Vision,…

The Fed’s Pickle

This is a follow-up to my subscriber post from earlier today on the US economy. For those of you who are not paying subscribers, let me summarize the post by saying I think the US economy is slowing but not in a recession. Nevertheless, I…

The problem with Europe

I have been troubled by the lack of policy space in Europe for some time now, particularly as it concerns Italy. But this is coming to a head for me this morning, with the German government auctioning 10-year paper at 24 basis points below…

The Fed has inverted the yield curve

Back in September 2018, Fed Governor Lael Brainard dismissed yield curve inversion as a signal of recession, something I saw then - and still see now - as a mistake. And what I said then is that this mistake would lead to the Fed's…

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