interest rates

There are a number of market, economic and political threads I want to comment on as we end the week. In terms of my mood, having digested the recent economic and political news, I am actually hopeful. I think the prospect of recession and…

If you've been reading my most recent posts on US monetary policy, the sense you would have been getting is that the Fed is shifting away from its tightening bias. And the main reason it's unclear what this means in terms of actual policy,…

Yesterday, the US Treasury yield curve inverted between 2- and 5-year rates. Right now, the 2-year is trading at 2.82%. While the 5-year is trading at 2.81%. So, the curve remains inverted.

While everyone was focussing on the relief rally in stocks yesterday, the US treasury yield curve inverted for the first time in over a decade. This is a negative signpost in a world in which the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise…

Here is what the freeze in the US-China trade war will mean for the global economic outlook.

This is my inaugural post on the new platform after I wrote you about changes I wanted to make. So, I hope this new platform is better than the old because it's being hosted at my old blog url www.creditwritedowns.com. Let me know your…

The Powell speech is over and the stock market is up on the back of it because people interpreted his comments as dovish. Was it though? It depends on where you're coming from.

Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida gave a speech just yesterday on future monetary policy called "Data Dependence and U.S. Monetary Policy". Let's look at what he had to say as we await Chairman Powell's own speech today.

I am now stuffed with Turkey after days sitting around eating for the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US. Today is Black Friday, the biggest day of the year for retail sales. And so it makes sense to write this newsletter post today.  I…

The bear steepening from late August was a head fake. We went from about 18 basis points between the 2- and the 10-year on August 27th to 34 on October 10th. That's when the equities market threw a tizzy as the ten-year reached the 3.25%…