fiscal

I want to take stock of the economic landscape in the US now that the Thanksgiving holiday is past. There are three decisive variables in my view. The first is the ability of the healthcare system to deal with the coronavirus and keep…

The calls for fiscal relief by the Federal Reserve have apparently fallen on deaf ears, as US President Trump pulled out of negotiations for a stimulus package last night. Asset markets were all over the place as investors digested the…

My view for the last several weeks is that September and October is where the rubber hits the road for the US economy. By that time, the second spike in coronavirus cases will have diminished and we will get a more realistic forward-looking…

When I last wrote about the US economy on Friday, I wrote that the jobs numbers "support my baseline view that the rollover in US GDP growth has been mild so far. The threat to that outlook comes in the form of policy and the anticipated…

The new normal We are in the middle of a grand social experiment. That's the overriding thought I had this morning as I looked out my bathroom window on the empty streets below. Some of the longer-term impacts of this experiment are clear -…

At the weekend, I noticed that the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was still touting so-called coronabonds to deal with the devastating impact of this pandemic on Spain and Italy. For some northern European policy makers, this is a…

My anecdote on where we are This morning, before I left the house to take my son to school he said, "they should just close schools today. Why wait?" And so, as I took my son to school for the last time before it shuts due to the…

We are now to the point where it's clear the coronavirus situation will last for weeks and months to come as more and more countries are forced into the lockdown and quarantine approach to slow the virus down. This is a matter of life and…

We are now facing the potential for a severe financial crisis, with all asset markets showing major moves toward safe haven assets. What has precipitated panic is the Saudi oil price cut at the weekend because it has caused oil prices to…

There are conditions under which governments can create money—or debt—without fear of inflation or excessive debt burdens. There are other conditions under which debt or money creation can lead to inflation and balance sheet problems.