fiscal

Italy's 10-year sovereign bond yield has risen from 1.78% at end of April and prior to the general election to 3.66%. That's the highest since the beginning of 2014 and the yield is still rising. Domestic banks and Italian life insurers are…

In the past year, Italy has been a source of a lot of investor angst, with 10-year yields reaching levels not seen since 2014. Despite the simmering crisis there, I am not concerned about short- or medium-term outcomes because I believe the…

There was a slew of PMI data released yesterday. And the ISM released it's manufacturing numbers for the US as well. Almost all of the data were bullish and supports the idea that this economic expansion has legs for the rest of 2018 and…

Yesterday's daily featured four views on a potential global recession and financial crisis by the end of the year 2020. Nouriel Roubini had the view I think easiest to deconstruct because he lays out ten separate trigger points that could…

Is the fiscal debate political or market-driven? The eponymous debate in the US over government spending, debt and deficits is whether the issues are fundamentally market-driven or politically-motivated. For example, recently Trump economic…

The Italian government will do whatever it takes to remain in the Euro. When others outside of government talk about Italexit and the like, it is meaningless. That's the message Tria is sending.

In December 2017 the US federal corporate tax rate on profits over $10 million was reduced from 35% to 21%. This column examines the plausibility of the Council of Economic Advisers’ estimates of how a cut in the corporate profit tax rate…

As good as the headline unemployment rate appears to be, we should worry that wage growth for the majority of Americans remains weak. The Federal Reserve, acting on the headline rate, will likely make a significant policy error and raise…

Global growth has been slowing. But we have plenty of time before a recession or financial crisis hits. My worries are about financial fragility caused by high asset prices and corporate releveraging.

Links on the Chinese reaction to tariffs, economic problems in Italy, the dangers of monetary offset for shares, and the importance of voter turnout for the midterm US elections.