As good as the headline unemployment rate appears to be, we should worry that wage growth for the majority of Americans remains weak. The Federal Reserve, acting on the headline rate, will likely make a significant policy error and raise…
Links on the Chinese reaction to tariffs, economic problems in Italy, the dangers of monetary offset for shares, and the importance of voter turnout for the midterm US elections.
Albert Edwards says the Fed will tighten more aggressively. The increase in interest rates will be a stimulant at first. But eventually, the higher rates will catch up with debtors.
With the Fed already on notice about inflation because of “low, low unemployment”, massive amounts of new deficit spending will only move up their timetable. And bond rates will rise as a result.
When defaults begin to rise and the economy begins to slow, we will find out whether deficits really drive rates higher or cause inflation to rise and remain high.