European breakup

At the weekend, I noticed that the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was still touting so-called coronabonds to deal with the devastating impact of this pandemic on Spain and Italy. For some northern European policy makers, this is a…

Morning thoughts Let's hit on several themes today that I've covered in the past which are advancing. The overall context here is that we have escaped a first wave of dreadful information flow, with policy makers doing their utmost to take…

My anecdote on where we are This morning, before I left the house to take my son to school he said, "they should just close schools today. Why wait?" And so, as I took my son to school for the last time before it shuts due to the…

Labour shellacking and SNP domination The UK general election results are in. And, for me, the most striking feature of the outcome is the absolute thrashing the Labour Party received. With only 201 seats of 650 constituencies in…

I haven't written about Brexit in months now, largely because it has become so unpredictable that I have had nothing to say. After we saw the delay that I predicted in December, the whole affair has just had too many moving parts to know…

I am back from my beach vacation. So, let me outline what my thinking is after a period of reflection and how it has changed or stayed the same. I last posted more than a week ago right before I left, regarding my frustration about…

I have been troubled by the lack of policy space in Europe for some time now, particularly as it concerns Italy. But this is coming to a head for me this morning, with the German government auctioning 10-year paper at 24 basis points below…

Everything I am reading this morning in the news flow points to increased geopolitical confrontation and the breakdown of the post-Cold War world order. We are quickly moving to a more hostile balkanized geopolitical environment. And I…

The economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we're seeing in financial markets right now suggests markets are discounting serious economic problems down the line.…

The overall macro message I have been making the past several months is that the global economy has cooled to perhaps its slowest growth since the financial crisis. Yet, when we look for signs of imminent recession in the US or for…