equities

At the beginning of 2015, I began to push an investment thesis for fixed income that has had a lot of upside, but that I believe has finally played out. I want to discuss why that thesis mattered, why it's dead and what will replace it.…

A lot of the data coming out of the US of late reinforces the concept that the V-shaped recovery is flattening out. Meanwhile, in Europe, which has outperformed the US on a currency-adjusted basis, the question now is whether that…

How do like that for a title! Let me flesh this out relatively quickly here. It might end up spanning multiple posts as a result. But, yesterday I promised to follow up on thoughts about market volatility and market directional based on…

I am back from the 4th of July weekend here in the US. I have a few new thoughts to share with you today. But, my overall macro view remains the same - namely that the US has recovered from recession but downside risks to the US economy and…

This is going to be a relatively short post (I hope). My aim is just to bring together all of the thinking from my recent posts into one shorter narrative. And I'm hoping I can do that successfully here. So, here goes Pre-lockdown economy…

Later today, I am talking to Ash Bennington, my friend and colleague at Real Vision, on our Daily Briefing about what's going on in the market and the economy right now. And I'd like to use this note at Credit Writedowns to help me collect…

This week I have been making the case for fading this market re-opening rally. I did not expect it to fall apart straight away. But yesterday we saw the first chinks in the armor. So let me tell you what I'm thinking now. This will be…

We have started an experiment at Real Vision on our Daily Briefing where we have guest commentators more often. Our usual European commentator, Roger Hirst, is out for two weeks. And so we thought it would be a good opportunity to mix…

I am in the middle of watching an entertaining interview of Mark Cuban by Larry McDonald on Real Vision right now. I haven't got to the part to which I assume the title refers:  "Mark Cuban — This Feels a Lot Like the Internet Bubble". But,…

At the end of April, I wrote a bullish piece centered on an economic snapback after the re-opening, in large part because of pervasive bearish sentiment. I called it "Negative sentiment, the oil price collapse and re-opening business".…