double dip

As I write this, I am waiting for the latest jobless claims data out of the US to be released. But, irrespective of what the data show, unfortunately we are seeing a W-shaped pattern to economic data. And that looks set to continue. Some…

Today the Wall Street Journal is reporting that German industrial output for the 4th quarter of 2012 likely fell below the output for the 3rd quarter, making it possible that Germany could lapse into recession.

The election is now over and it's time to think about what is to come. The most pressing political concern is the so-called fiscal cliff that has resulted from a budget deal Washington's politicians cobbled together to avoid default during…

This crisis has broken a lot of economic taboos, with central banks buying up assets and expanding their balance sheets in a desperate effort  to reflate a debt-laden private sector. The goal is to maintain economic growth, even at the risk…

As the Eurozone recession (which started months ago) worsens, the area's manufacturing activity, as measured by the PMI index, is contracting at a pace not seen since 2009. A great deal of this decline however is now driven by Germany…

Case-Shiller came out with some numbers earlier today, showing they too will soon be confirming the housing recovery in the US.

I think it goes without saying that the problems for Spanish and Italian regional governments are due to the austerity-induced double dip recession those economies are suffering. The real insight here is that this municipal - double dip…

We first noticed the first signs that the economy was beginning to soften about three months ago. Now the evidence of a slowdown has become so overwhelming that it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we are headed for a recession. We…

Just to put some meat on the bones around the cyclical downturn turning into recession, the personal income data paint a negative picture absent debt accumulation. What we see in recessions is that personal income leads the cycle and when…

Retail sales are at recessionary levels right now, having dropped for a third consecutive month. I need to flag the inventories data that came out this morning in the US as the only thing between us and outright recession.