double dip

We first noticed the first signs that the economy was beginning to soften about three months ago. Now the evidence of a slowdown has become so overwhelming that it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we are headed for a recession. We…

Just to put some meat on the bones around the cyclical downturn turning into recession, the personal income data paint a negative picture absent debt accumulation. What we see in recessions is that personal income leads the cycle and when…

Retail sales are at recessionary levels right now, having dropped for a third consecutive month. I need to flag the inventories data that came out this morning in the US as the only thing between us and outright recession.

The June retail sales report was simply dismal. Not only did sales decline by 0.5% in June rather than rise 0.2% as the consensus expected, but the April data were revised. The measure used for GDP calculations, excludes gasoline, auto…

I would love to see ECRI explain why they have changed the date when they felt recession would begin and whether this means they were wrong in forecasting recession in 2011. yesterday, I said " I don’t think Achuthan is changing his story…

I have Bloomberg copy and a video of a recent performance by ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on Tom Keene's show. A lot of people have been pouring scorn on business cycle forecaster Achuthan because of his company's recession forecast. I suspect…

I have been writing about the global growth slowdown for the better part of a year now. All around, there is economic weakness and more limited policy space to counteract it. And the problem here is that there is no one to do any heavy…

The Institute for Supply Management released its widely-followed index of manufacturing activity today. The data show that the US manufacturing sector contracted in June for the first time since July 2009. Given economic weakness elsewhere…

The economic data today from a number of different corners has been poor. In Asia, Europe and the US, manufacturing data point to continued slowdown. In the US, weak jobs numbers do as well. It has been clear for some time that growth was…

Lakshman Achuthan is sticking to his call that the US will enter recession in the second half of 2012. He spoke to CNBC's Squawk Box crew about it this morning. Take a look.