double dip

Nouriel Roubini is the most prominent economist to warn that a double-dip recession would be a distinct possibility if economic policy-makers return to policy normalization too quickly.  Now, Stephen Roach, head of Morgan Stanley Asia,…

If you recall, at the end of May, I wrote a post “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery” that said jobless claims data were pointing to an imminent recovery.  The general gist of my argument was recovery…

Dick Berner, Chief North American Economist at Morgan Stanley, thinks we are in for a sizable uptick in GDP for Q3.  I must be honest; I am sceptical about this, but Berner is a well-regarded economist  whose views can’t be…

The US is not the only place where a double dip downturn is to be feared.  China has its own economic imbalances to deal with.  Too much money is being thrown at the problem creating malinvestment and a bubble economy, shares…

On Friday, in reporting on second quarter GDP statistics, I wrote with some skepticism about the underlying consumer demand which would underpin a sustainable recovery.  I do feel that the stage is set for recovery; Alan Greenspan…

Last night I wrote an article reminding you that downside risk remains in the global economy.  While I have been singing a more bullish tuneregarding the prospect of a technical recovery in 2009, I am concerned about a double dip as a…

A recent post I published on both Credit Writedowns and Naked Capitalism, “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery,” has left the impression that I am a wild-eyed bull – for which I have been duly smacked about…

I'm back after a brief hiatus.  I would like to present you with some data on jobless claims, an economic data series that will become increasingly important in the weeks and months ahead.  The data suggest that a recovery is imminent.…

This is another post I originally ran on Naked Capitalism last month. As you know, I have turned more positive about the potential for a cyclical economic recovery. However, I am unchanged regarding much of the sentiment expressed in this…

I believe we may be seeing the bottom here. Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman does as well. Here is what he has to say: Our baseline expectation is that the pace of contraction of the US economy probably peaked in the horrific…