Auto inventory restocking only thing between US and recession now

Retail sales are at recessionary levels right now, having dropped for a third consecutive month. I need to flag the inventories data that came out this morning in the US as the only thing between us and outright recession.

The background here is that ECRI has made a big splash of late with their prediction that a new recession would be dated starting right about now when data revisions come in and the recession dating committee has a chance to review these. ECRI's thesis is controversial par...


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