consumers

A lot of the data coming out of the US of late reinforces the concept that the V-shaped recovery is flattening out. Meanwhile, in Europe, which has outperformed the US on a currency-adjusted basis, the question now is whether that…

The retail sales data coming out this morning makes clear that the recession that began in February is now over. The forward-looking questions go to what the shape of the recovery looks like, what the policy response will be and how asset…

By Michael Pettis This post was originally published at China Financial Markets at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website According to a May 2020 CNN article, one consequence of the coronavirus pandemic is that “Americans…

I took a hiatus from writing for a few days to see if I could get a clearer perspective. But, the reality is that there is no visibility to anything going forward. Making longer-term predictions is probably a fool's errand then.…

Global equities have rallied.  Of course,  stock prices are not the end all and be all, but it stands in stark contrast to the cries that the sky is falling.

The Fed is likely to continue to talk up the US economy. And I believe markets will react. With the yield curve at 32 basis points spread between 2- and 1-year Treasuries, we still have scope for further curve flattening.

Hallmarks of recession are all around about the time they happen if one looks close enough — certainly in 2008. I don’t think we are in a recession by any stretch, right now — not even close.

Economic data coming out of the United States continue to show a robust consumer-led expansion. The latest consumer credit report showed the largest monthly gain since November 2001, with outstanding consumer credit rising by $27.95…

From an economic perspective, the coming slowdown in production will dent GDP growth.

Yesterday’s release of the Personal Income and Outlays data showed personal income increasing 0.4% in January, ahead of expectations. The numbers demonstrate that the US economy continues to expand at a solid if unspectacular pace. The…