consumers

Money supply and LEI in the US are pointing down Fed hawkishness is increasing Credit excesses continue in high yield

While the credit expansion/savings reduction needs to continue to grow to support GDP growth, the credit expansion/savings reduction doesn’t need to ‘spike up’ proactively as it does when the fiscal tightening is proactive.

Today’s ADP employment report came out with a figure of 139,000 jobs added to the US economy in February. This number is low and comes with downward revisions to past numbers. The ADP data are the last big numbers we will see except weekly…

Marshall Auerback was on CNBC yesterday afternoon talking to Kelly Evans and Steve Liesman on Closing Bell. And his read on the US economy is like mine, 1.5-2.0% underlying growth. He thinks the weak Q1 numbers are not just weather-related.…

Themes for today: Commodities: soybean prices could fall due to increased supply. This would be troublesome for Argentina. Emerging markets: Of the fragile five, India is looking better, Brazil is still a big concern. Developed…

Former Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach isn’t buying the US recovery. The economist, now a Senior Fellow at Yale University, talked to Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance" earlier today to discuss the US economy, as well as…

The danger of Japan's current policy (Abenomics) is that the outcome could turn out to be the exact opposite of what was originally intended. With wages stagnant, these import-driven price increases are hitting the Japanese consumer quite…

Consumer spending in the US accelerated in November, boosting projections for the GDP growth in the fourth quarter. While incomes grew as well, the rate of increases from the same period last year has slowed. With confidence improving,…

I am not a bull, largely because I have concerns about the long-term sustainability of today’s policy mix in Europe and the United States and the rise in equity multiples. But it is undeniable that we are seeing a more bullish outlook for…

A number of indicators seem to point to a relatively weak holiday shopping season in the US. In particular, the Gallup survey index that estimates holiday spending has turned lower. And consumer sentiment peaked this summer and has been…