consumers

debt matters, even if it is possible to pretend for many years that it doesn’t (and this pretense was made possible by the implicit capitalization of debt-servicing costs). Japan never really wrote down all or even most of its investment…

The U.S. Treasury’s semi-annual currency report had surprisingly strong criticism for Germany. The U.S. claims that Germany’s macroeconomic policies are inherently deflationary, creating risk for further crisis. I agree with this criticism…

WTI crude oil has undergone a substantial correction in the last few days. What's going on?

The recent downturns in consumer confidence and spending are likely being exacerbated by the controversy in Washington; but it is clear that the consumer was already feeling the pressure of the surge in interest rates, higher energy and…

While data is difficult to come by, there are signs that the sharp drop in consumer confidence since the federal government shutdown (see post) is translating into weaker consumer spending.

It is still too early for all of these predictions either to have materialized or to have failed, but I thought it might be useful to review them to see whether or not they have been reasonably accurate in describing unfolding events and,…

As analysts and official entities like the World Bank continue to downgrade their forecasts for medium-term growth in China, I have been asked increasingly often for the reasons I believe that 3-4% average annual growth rates is likely to…

By Sober Look Rumors have been circulating for some time in the media that China is considering scrapping the one-child policy that was launched back in 1979. But the nation's official paper suggested last week that although plans to…

Because growth will consistently underperform expectations as China rebalances, many members of the Chinese policymaking elite, and their effective allies among the shrinking but still large contingent of China-bulls, will increasingly…