Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Credit Writedowns 2019 Outlook, Part 2 – Brexit
I've been thinking about how to write this piece on the outlook for the political economy in the UK for a number of days. I had it teed up to finish yesterday. But I have left it until today. Apologies
I still have the bias that economics…
Despite perception Powell was dovish, the yield curve remains super-inverted
I mentioned earlier today that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had a joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019…
Some thoughts on today’s 312,000 jobs added to the economy
The numbers
Now, about the jobs numbers, here are the headline numbers:
An increase of 312,000 in December in non-farm payrolls based on the business survey. That is well in excess of the consensus estimate for 178,000.
Revisions of…
Powell, Bernanke and Yellen offer a strong rebuke of Trump
At 10:15 this morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had a joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019 Annual…
Growth downshift warning as Apple’s guidance downgrade trumps mixed data
I will continue my 2019 outlook pieces in the coming days. But we've seen a lot of data out today. I think what we're seeing will have a bearing on rate policy, especially given what's happening in the bond market, something I discussed…
The yield curve is now super-inverted
I am doing my 2019 outlook pieces now. And I plan on making some market outlook comments in the coming days. But, what's going on in the market right now is equally important.
As the stock market takes a battering due to concerns about…
Credit Writedowns 2019 Outlook, Part 1 – US Politics
Happy New Year!
I've been thinking about what will be different in 2019 than 2018 and I wanted to run my thoughts by you on a number of different topics. And because I've discussed some of my thinking about the outlook for the markets and…
More on the steepening yield curve and deteriorating credit conditions
I want to talk a little about price action in asset markets this week. But, since I am on holiday, I am going to keep this short. Most of the focus has been on equities, where volatility has increased. But I am looking at this as more of a…
The yield curve is steepening again. Here’s what it means.
Bullish Treasury curve action
Lost in the relief over the rally in US equities today was the price action in US government bonds. And it was good. Even before today, as the middle of the curve inverted, the Treasury curve had been…
What to make of the best one-day percentage gain for US stocks in over nine years
I want to go back to my theme of just over a week ago about the resiliency of the US economy. That's because, regardless of one-day -- or even multi-day -- stock market gyrations, the real economy is the defining issue for markets.…