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The politics of adjustment
China is not the first country to have experienced a long period of miraculous growth. But the most difficult part of growth miracles has not been the growth miracle itself but rather the subsequent adjustment.
7.0% unemployment makes tapering in December more likely
Today is the day when the much anticipated jobs report was released. And the data were good. The jobs report was not the big news in my view, however, because at the same time we saw the jobs numbers we also got personal income numbers -…
US jobs stronger than expected, but not enough for Fed to taper
The US November jobs data are generally stronger than expected. The closure of the government and the re-opening suggests a two month average offers a more accurate read, which as we noted, is fairly steady job growth in the US. There are…
Do the US GDP figures point to a bullish outlook in the global economy?
I am not a bull, largely because I have concerns about the long-term sustainability of today’s policy mix in Europe and the United States and the rise in equity multiples. But it is undeniable that we are seeing a more bullish outlook for…
Dovish Draghi Unlikely to Derail Euro
- The euro was bid to new highs for the move earlier in Asia to $1.3640 before pulling back to the figure to await the ECB meeting
- This price action cautions against expecting a reversal of the trend in response to today's developments,…
The fragile recovery and the rise in asset prices
Now that Europe is on the mend, the initial phase of the financial crisis is clearly in the rearview mirror. Equity prices, bonds prices and house prices have risen by leaps and bounds even before this economic recovery was clear. Yet, the…