Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Muddling through in Europe
The scenario I laid out for Europe for 2014 in three posts on the global economy last week is one of muddling through. However, whereas in the US, there are upside risks, in Europe the risks are mostly to the downside, politically and…
Germany has a capital investment problem
An increase in government borrowing to fund medium-term investment is not going to result in out-of-control inflation. But failure of capital investment due to an out-of-control capital account deficit will in the end impoverish Germany.
Detailing some risks to the global economy
Most economic analysts are in a bullish frame of mind regarding the outlook for 2014. I believe 2014 will be better than 2013. Nevertheless, there are risks to this optimism, both regarding the real economy and the valuation of shares.…
A country breakdown as global growth accelerates: Germany, Austria, France, Netherlands
I believe, as many economic analysts do, that global growth is accelerating. Backing that up, two days ago I looked at four economies where growth has been good. But, yesterday, I looked at four economies where growth has been poor and big…
What do negative interest rates do?
Responding to press conference questions, ECB President Mario Draghi has said the ECB is ‘technically ready’ to bring interest rates below zero. WHat do negative interest rates do? The explanation is here.
On December tapering
This is a brief note because I need to alter my view on the Fed’s taper a smidgen. Yesterday, I said tapering is coming and I implied that it is likely to happen next week. I now think December may be too aggressive a move for the Fed.
Inventory building poses risk to US growth numbers
In spite of some relatively strong economic data coming out of the US, risks to near-term growth remain. One of those risks comes from higher than expected inventory build. We saw this come through in the latest GDP numbers.