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Dollar Weaker for Thanksgiving
Below is a selection of economic and political events affecting currency markets.
The US retail outlook remains weak
A number of indicators seem to point to a relatively weak holiday shopping season in the US. In particular, the Gallup survey index that estimates holiday spending has turned lower. And consumer sentiment peaked this summer and has been…
More thoughts on the global recovery
My view since the beginning of the financial crisis has been that policy levers to alleviate this private debt stress are limited, and that this limitation will be felt in defaults, writedowns and deleveraging of a magnitude that is larger…
The Fed’s dominance of the MBS market
At its current pace the Fed is taking about half a trillion of MBS securities out of the market. In fact the Fed is now removing more than 100% of the paper that is being issued.
Brief thoughts on the asset-based global recovery
The global economic recovery continues as all of the most important economies in the world are on track for growth. Europe is the laggard and the tepid recovery there could still stall out. Below are some brief ideas on where this is headed…
When are markets “rational”?
To me, much of the argument about whether or not markets are efficient misses the point. There are conditions, it seems, under which markets seem to do a great job of managing risk, keeping the cost of capital reasonable, and allocating…
Bernanke: Communication and Monetary Policy
Below is the full text of a Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on communication and monetary policy that includes his view on the Fed’s large scale asset purchase program. His ideas give greater clarity to how the Fed thinks…
Plosser: A Limited Central Bank
Below is a speech by Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser recommended a more circumscribed role for the Fed.