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An overreaction to the ISM manufacturing report
Today's ISM manufacturing PMI number spooked jittery US equity investors, sending stocks sharply lower (with VIX climbing above 20). The headline number came in about 9% below expectations. It seems that some of the manufacturing softness…
Seven latest developments in Venezuela – a crisis in the making
Below are seven recent developments in Venezuela's economy
As labor force participation declines, should the Fed tweak its forward guidance?
The issue should be well known for US economy watchers. The unemployment rate has declined noticeably but if we factor in the declining labour force participation rate the picture looks largely unchanged. Should the Fed, then, shift focus…
Nine Event Risks in the Week Ahead
The investment climate has proven extremely difficult for investors to navigate. Fed tapering and better world growth was to lead to higher interest rates. Yet interest rates for the developed world have fallen sharply in recent weeks.…
Five reasons the ECB will act in the months ahead
It may be something symbolic such as a small rate cut or possibly a more substantial move such as a new LTRO program, but the European Central Bank will be forced to loosen monetary policy in the near future.
Economic and market themes: 2014-01-31
Themes for today:
US economic growth is poised to be decent in 2014
Europe will recover but not at the same pace as the US
EM is really a China contagion story. I am concerned but not alarmed
Watch high risk sectors like leveraged…
PCE inflation rate lowest since 2009, holds key to future Fed policy moves
Behind all the noisy economic data over the past month, one key measure is telling the central bank to remain cautious. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the so-called PCE price index has grown less than 1% over the past year (chart…