Credit Writedowns

Now, when I look at financial markets going into 2014, I cannot recall ever having come across a more one-sided view than the one which prevails. The consensus view on bonds is overwhelmingly bearish while pretty much everyone is bullish on…

there is much discussion of formally ending attempts to sterilize the SMP sovereign bond purchases conducted under ECB President Trichet. While refraining from sterilizing the SMP purchases would boost excess liquidity, we suspect it would…

The share of EM-denominated Uridashi bonds has increased steadily from less than 10% in 2006 to nearly 55% in both 2012 and 2013. So far in 2014, that EM share has risen to over 60%. It is clear that the growth in EM Uridashi issuance has…

News links for 05 Feb 2014

The Federal Reserve’s ‘taper talk’ in spring 2013 has been blamed for outflows of capital from emerging markets. This column argues that global growth prospects and uncertainty are more important drivers of emerging-market capital flows…

Today Credit Suisse confirmed our earlier assessment that the ECB will be shifting toward a looser monetary stance in the near future via "suspension of the SMP sterilization".

This post is about three different topics, Bitcoin and e-Payments, the Minimum Wage, and consumer spending and Walmart. There has been a lot of discussion about all three and I believe I have an innovative way to attack all three issues…

While the emerging markets are getting a bit of a reprieve today, it bears noting that the move to so-called safe haven assets and currencies has begun. This suggests to me that George Magnus’ warning about this emerging markets crisis must…

News links for 4 Feb 2014

China's plan seems to be to acquire a total of 6,000 tonnes of gold to put its holdings on a par with developed countries and to elevate the international appeal of the renminbi. Meanwhile in the futures market, the basic problem is that…