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Markets
India: reserves declining, record outflows from bonds and shares
Barclays Capital had a sobering update on India today. Apparently June saw the largest outflows on record from India bonds and equities portfolios. As a result, declines in India's foreign reserves are becoming material.
Bernanke’s comments suggest tapering will come later
The Federal Reserve delivered a one-two punch to market expectations today. First the FOMC minutes did not appear as hawkish as many expected. Several FOMC members wanted to see more job growth before pulling back on the throttle. Second,…
Much Ado About Nothing
Interest rates will stay low for a long time - long as in years, not months. In the UK there is a risk that a weakening currency may lead to some modest increase in inflation but, generally speaking, inflation is not a problem, and all…
Banks Outbidding PE Funds at Foreclosure
Banks appear not to have heard the old Wall Street saying, “A position is a trade that didn’t work out.” I suspect they are going to be long their REO for a more protracted period than they anticipate. Stay tuned.
China’s short-term rates have stabilized but the yield curve remains inverted
The sharp jump in China's short-term rates has been nearly reversed. Repo rates are approaching their longer-term averages, with the PBoC coming to its senses and addressing the liquidity squeeze.
Currencies: Positioning and Technical Outlook as Dollar Rides High
Fundamental and technical considerations are aligned in favor of the US dollar. The latest string of economic data, including the June employment report, is strengthening the market's conviction that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering…
Draghi breaks new ground, Euro breaks a cent
By Marc Chandler
The ECB took an unprecedented step today. Part of its mantra has been that it does not pre-commit. Today it did. It indicated interest rates will be the same or lower for an extended period of time. Draghi, when pressed,…
What has changed in EM: China, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Czech
The “lesson” is over in China. Brazil is in flux and there is some room to be optimistic. Indonesia is finally increasing subsidized fuel prices. The Turkish central bank is stepping up even more. The Czech National Bank is moving closer…
India: Let the Rupee fall and enter the currency wars
In the last few days the USD/INR exchange rate exceeded the psychologically important level of 60 for the first time in history. Foreign investors are panicking, as capital leaves emerging markets.
Emerging markets for sale
Floating emerging markets currencies have been under tremendous pressure over the past month, as active investors move out. Slowing growth, political instability, and weaker demand for natural resources have all contributed to the sharp…