Gold member posts
GDP revisions and the US personal savings rate
This report was the first under a major revision to reporting of US economic data. The personal savings rate stood out.
A few thoughts on the collapse of the Qualcomm-NXP deal
China just torpedoed a major global deal between two non-Chinese chipmakers. It is a signal of China's market power. Some thoughts below
Earnings season, TMT consolidation and the threat of FAANG
The threat of technology is most acute in the TMT spaces because these are pure information industries where the Internet upends incumbent business models. So it is interesting to see how well the sector is doing during earnings season. In…
Cable companies now under competitive threat, beginning to hemorrhage customers
A new study just released by eMarketer projects that US cable companies will 33 million customers this year, up from a loss of 24.9 million a year ago.
Tesla: focus on the cash burn
The Amazon analogy I made last month really makes sense when talking about Tesla because we are nearing the end of this cycle. Now is the time to worry about cash flow because the potential for a sudden funding halt is increasing. Amazon's…
More on whether Powell’s comments about the economy were hawkish or dovish
The sense I get is that Powell is a closet Taylor Rule devotee. If I'm right, then the neutral rate is quite a bit higher than where we are now.
Tesla is back looking for money, this time to fuel an Asian expansion
Tesla is a completely speculative, junk-rated venture. Investors in the company are betting on Elon Musk's celebrity as a forward-thinker, hoping he can ramp up production and achieve significant economies of scale
Fed overtightening risk now begins in earnest with yield curve at my predicted 25 basis points
The yield curve has flattened to the point where two-year yields are only 25 basis points lower than 10-year yields. I have been predicting this outcome for several months and see this as a level to worry about the Fed's ability to engineer…
Currencies to own as recession takes hold
This post first appeared on Patreon on 9 Jul 2018 Last week, I wrote up a macro bond play that involves three parts: currencies, spread differentials and default risk. I want to hone in on one of those three today: currencies. And here's…
Playing the yield curve
Right now, we are still very much in the bull market phase. So the number of macro theses which make money are limited. US curve flattening and the prospect of Fed overtightening presents the best risk/reward.