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Browsing Category
Economy
Bullish data, recoveries, crashes and the psychology of forecasting redux
If you have been wondering whether a statistical recovery is at hand, today’s ISM manufacturing report should be the clincher. The report was definitely bullish with the ISM index rising to 55.7 and sub-components supporting the…
UK: Darling confirms government to break up too big to fail banks
In a clear break with US economic policy, the UK government have decided that too big to fail is too big to exist. As a result, three large financial institutions now owned at least in part by government are to be dismantled. Moreover, talk…
CIT will now file for bankruptcy
CIT has the approval of debtholders to file a prepackaged bankruptcy. This comes via Business Wire: CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT), a leading provider of financing to small businesses and middle market companies, today announced that, with…
US personal income data for September shows pullback
The data released this morning by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on personal income somehow managed to show weakness in income and consumption as well as savings. I see this as proof that Americans are…
A sustainable recovery with 530,000 weekly claims?
That’s what we seem to be expecting based on the huge uptick in equities since March. While stock markets have long since moved it up a gear, the employment market is stuck in neutral. The latest seasonally-adjusted jobless claims numbers…
Third quarter GDP growth comes in at 3.5%
While a positive number was expected, let’s wait to crunch the numbers before we pop the cork on the Moet – the price index was only 0.8% versus an expected 1.4%. So I will want to see what is happening with nominal GDP. I also want…
GMAC has been nationalized
And you thought the bailouts were over and market discipline might be restored. Not a chance – the bailouts will continue, come hell or high water. The latest demonstration of this is GMAC, where the government will now be majority…
Andy Xie: Central bank “arsonists have been asked to put out the fire”
Former Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie joins other famed prognosticators like Nouriel Roubini in worrying about an incipient asset bubble. The Rosetta Stone Advisors board member sees the huge increase in money supply created by central…
Former Citi Chairman in favor of re-imposing Glass-Steagall
This comes via the NYTimes: To the Editor: Re “Volcker’s Voice, Often Heeded, Fails to Sell a Bank Strategy” (front page, Oct. 21): As another older banker and one who has experienced both the pre- and post-Glass-Steagall world, I…
Is Citi being forced to downsize by Obama?
It seems that not a day goes by when you don’t hear about some asset sale in Citigroup’s far-flung empire. Of all the major too-big-to-fail institutions, it is easily the most troubled: the poster child for everything that is wrong in…