A sustainable recovery with 530,000 weekly claims?
That’s what we seem to be expecting based on the huge uptick in equities since March. While stock markets have long since moved it up a gear, the employment market is stuck in neutral. The latest seasonally-adjusted jobless claims numbers came in at 530,000. The widely-followed four week average is still 526,250 and is not coming down.
These numbers are more consistent with a loss of 200,000 jobs per month than of one of declining unemployment. When you have more people losing jobs than getting them, you don’t have the pre-conditions for a sustainable recovery. The economy needs to move it up a notch or we are looking at a double dip.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Oct. 24 |
Oct. 17 |
Change |
Oct. 10 |
Year |
|
Initial Claims (SA) |
530,000 |
531,000 |
-1,000 |
520,000 |
485,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Initial Claims (NSA) |
492,456 |
460,430 |
+32,026 |
509,730 |
449,389 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
526,250 |
532,250 |
-6,000 |
533,000 |
477,750 |
|
|
Advance |
|
|
|
Prior1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WEEK ENDING |
Oct. 17 |
Oct. 10 |
Change |
Oct. 3 |
Year |
|
Ins. Unemployment (SA) |
5,797,000 |
5,945,000 |
-148,000 |
6,034,000 |
3,773,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) |
4,968,019 |
4,916,574 |
+51,445 |
4,953,947 |
3,233,118 |
|
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) |
5,960,750 |
6,039,500 |
-78,750 |
6,093,250 |
3,746,500 |
Source
Weekly Unemployment Claims Report – ETA Press Releases
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