Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Gold

What the Fed needs to do this week to assuage the bond market

Edward Harrison Mar 19, 2019

This is a follow-on to yesterday's post, where I argued that we are in a holding pattern regarding the thesis that global growth deceleration has ended. The equity markets are positioned as if that thesis is true. But the bond markets show…

Daily

Deutsche Bank, QT, the Fed’s outlook, the recent PMIs, and the Lyft IPO

Edward Harrison Mar 18, 2019

No major catalysts in either direction Right now, there are no major stories that I think will have any meaningful near-term impact on asset markets. We're definitely still in a risk-on market phase. And ostensibly, this is largely because…

Daily

Horrible continuing claims data speak to decelerating job growth

Edward Harrison Mar 14, 2019

Real quick here. I saw the jobless claims data today and thought they looked pretty good. But, I decided to go back to my 2008-2009 practice of sifting through the raw data for both initial claims and continuing claims. The numbers weren't…

Daily

The Japanification of Europe

Edward Harrison Mar 13, 2019

Thinking about Japanification Two FT articles and a discussion at Real Vision precipitated this post. On Monday, I had a conference call with a few markets-oriented colleagues at Real Vision, where I am an editor and program presenter. And…

Daily

US economy, Brexit, and the global slowdown during an equities rally

Edward Harrison Mar 12, 2019

Equities continued their rally today, both in the US and globally. While the US rally was impeded by bad news for Boeing, the S&P 500 did eke out a gain on the back of a rally in tech. Cisco, for example, is up 29% since it bottomed on…

Political Economy

People are finally realizing that the jobs picture has weakened

Edward Harrison Mar 8, 2019

It took the dramatic downshift in non-farm payrolls today for people to wake up to the drip-drip of weak jobs data coming out of the US. This put the equity market into a funk and caused bond yields to sink back to where they were on…

Daily

ECB’s reversal, covenant lite vulnerability, and delinquent mortgages

Edward Harrison Mar 7, 2019

ECB stimulus The biggest development today was the ECB's announcement that it is reversing its stance on stimulus and offering new bank loans: The European Central Bank signaled a major policy reversal Thursday, flagging plans for fresh…

Daily

Bullish ISM data and some thoughts on stall speed

Edward Harrison Mar 5, 2019

The February 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM data were very bullish. Both the headline and the major subindices showed a lot of strength. And for me that indicates the 0.3% number on the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker will move up markedly as more…

Daily

The stall speed US economy and fireworks in Europe

Edward Harrison Mar 4, 2019

Stalled outYou probably saw this but the Atlanta Fed came out with its first Q1 GDPNow estimate. And it's starting at a 0.3% level. Here's the chart. GDPNow is a nowcast. So it can change dramatically. And it isn't always very close to…

Political Economy

MMT for Dummies

Edward Harrison Mar 1, 2019

In the last few weeks, I've been seeing a lot of buzz about Modern Monetary Theory aka MMT. And most of what I'm seeing is reductionist to the point of absurdity. When I see critics of MMT talking about it, they're mostly using MMT as a…

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