Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Daily

No catalysts for global recession as Brexit gets long extension

Edward Harrison Apr 11, 2019

The overall macro message I have been making the past several months is that the global economy has cooled to perhaps its slowest growth since the financial crisis. Yet, when we look for signs of imminent recession in the US or for…

Daily

Brexit: Theresa May hints at Article 50 revocation

Edward Harrison Apr 8, 2019

Very quickly here: Yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May gave an informal address to the nation from her couch at a the Prime Minister's country retreat, Chequers.The informality of the address is what first caught people’s eye.…

Daily

Jobs report is a Goldilocks report this month. Here’s why

Edward Harrison Apr 5, 2019

The jobs report released at 8:30 this morning was as a good a report as we could expect, more than ten years into the US economic expansion. The headline March numbers were an increase of 196,000 conform payrolls and an unemployment rate…

Daily

The global economic supertanker is not unsinkable but…

Edward Harrison Apr 2, 2019

Sorry for the lack of posts. I haven't been feeling well. But let me make a short appearance with some brief thoughts on the global economy. 1 - Brexit I have been distracted a lot by the Brexit drama unfolding in the UK. In general, I…

Daily

On global bond markets predicting recession, collapsing net interest margins and Sweden as the model

Edward Harrison Mar 28, 2019

This post is going to be relatively long because I am going to try to combine a number of threads together. I thought about putting this post in the investor newsletter pool. But I am going to give it a wider distribution because of the…

Daily

The Fed will end up playing chicken with bond markets

Edward Harrison Mar 26, 2019

Hearing what Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren makes of the US economy, you get the feeling that the Fed may not be ready to roll over completely. And with the yield curve inverted between the 3-month and 10-year yields, we are at a…

Daily

The Fed has inverted the yield curve

Edward Harrison Mar 24, 2019

Back in September 2018, Fed Governor Lael Brainard dismissed yield curve inversion as a signal of recession, something I saw then - and still see now - as a mistake. And what I said then is that this mistake would lead to the Fed's…

Monetary System

US curve inversion worsens as the Fed acquiesces to market sentiment

Edward Harrison Mar 21, 2019

Yesterday's climbdown by the Federal Reserve on both interest rate policy and balance sheet reduction was not enough to satisfy the market's disquiet about the US economy. Equity markets sold off and US Treasury yields rallied as the…

Daily

Brexit as Europe’s Lehman moment

Edward Harrison Mar 21, 2019

I want to get to the Fed decision later today. But, before that, let me update you on Brexit under the rubric "Brexit as Europe's Lehman moment". I am thinking of it this way because many policy makers want to avoid the political and…

Daily

UK now closer to crashing out of the EU with no deal than ever before

Edward Harrison Mar 20, 2019

Very quick here on Brexit. British Prime Minister Theresa May has now submitted a formal request to the EU to extend the Article 50 time period to June 30th. The reason for the extension is that Britain has nearly run out of time, and it…

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