2021

The headlines I'm seeing this morning are downbeat. They point to an imminent coronavirus wave from mutant strains and a continued rise in interest rates, two outcomes I have warned about. But I am 'looking through' these headlines because…

Last week's initial jobless claims figure was unexpectedly low at 684,000 versus expectations for 730,000 and 781,000 the prior week. While this is just one week's numbers, it is the first time that claims have been under the pre-pandemic…

I have been watching the third wave make its way across Europe and reading the European press to get a sense of how bad it is. And it definitely looks like another lost quarter for Europe. I really like how comprehensive the coverage in the…

As the new week begins, I have three subjects I am focused on. The first is the coronavirus, where the mutant-inspired infection wave I have expected is forming. The second is emerging markets, where the increase in the US dollar is…

Yesterday the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released a policy statement that it has decided to stay the course on accommodative monetary policy through zero rates and quantitative easing. It provided absolutely nothing in terms…

I expect to see more of the bear market in bonds in due course. Eventually, I think it's the sell off in Treasuries that will force the Fed's hand. But right now, that is a crowded trade. We've got some negative Covid-19 data out of Europe…

After the last week off, let's see if we can get back into the flow here. And my apologies for ghosting you. I was overcommitted last week against a backdrop where there was less to say. In the interim, though, I have seen three market…

Jobs day in the US in 2021 will be the same for me today for the third month running. It's all about the start and stop nature in the leisure and hospitality sectors due to the pandemic. Underneath those shifts, the reverse radical recovery…

In the week ending February 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 745,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 730,000 to 736,000.…

I think we're close enough to the end of the Covid era to start talking more about what happens when this period is over. By that, I don't mean that COVID-19 is over as a major public health threat. I mean more that the period of time when…