2018

Powell mentioned financial stability as a concern as he was sworn in today. With markets taking a dive, it’s not clear what that will mean in terms of policy.

When defaults begin to rise and the economy begins to slow, we will find out whether deficits really drive rates higher or cause inflation to rise and remain high.

We’re looking at about 1% in real terms. In the 2000s, we saw real earnings growth rise to 2% and in the late 1990s, it was even 3%.

Non-farm payrolls were up 200,000 versus 180,000 expected and average hourly earnings were up 2.9% on the year

The Atlanta Fed updated its nowcast model today with the ISM results we reported earlier. The numbers are big.

The latest ISM Manufacturing Index came out earlier today. The numbers were strong, and the 69.1% reading was above expectations.

Everyone is bond bearish these days. Alan Greenspan is because he expects inflation. But this will mean tightening that risks derailing the US economy in 2019 and beyond.

The state of the nation is as good as it is going to get during this business cycle — at least from an economic perspective. On that, we should be a lot more interested in what Janet Yellen has to say in her last FOMC press conference.

The position I have stressed is one that is counter to the bond bear market narrative. But, that is longer-term. Shorter-term dynamics are bond bearish.

With Donald Trump set to give his State of the Union address, Democrats and Independents have gone from positive in 2017 to negative in 2018, while Republicans have gone in the other direction.