2018

Jeremy Grantham discussed his recent US market commentary with Consuelo Mack. The essence of Grantham’s comments were bearish for the US, suggesting investors could expect only a couple of percent real return over the next couple of decades…

Gallup has done a deeper dive into the data in its latest poll, which I highlighted last night. The numbers show small businesses content with the state of the economy, giving the Trump Administration high marks in this area.

Small business optimism is at a 10-year high on the eve of the latest US GDP report - another bullish indicator. Inflation is the key to how this impacts bonds longer-term.

"Basically, with the Fed and the other central banks flooding the world with money, a rising tide lifts all boats." So it's the tightening we have to fear.

What will stop the dollar's sell-off is not officials.  It is not the likelihood of a Fed hike.  Rather the market will exhaust itself. 

Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio warned that a rise in bond yields could lead to the biggest crisis in fixed income markets in almost 40 years.

Probably not. As Mnuchin and President Trump have done before, a distinction was drawn between short- and longer-term perspectives.

Big name tech companies are burning through billions of dollars as they try to scale. The promise is that they will one day look like Amazon, dominating markets and sporting massive levels of cash flow to reinvest.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio says we are late in the economic cycle and should expect good things from asset markets. But central banks will have a tricky time dealing with the consequences.

If bitcoin and its equivalents can deliver what its champions promise, what’s not to like? Well, the rub is what Economist Abba Lerner said “The modern state can make anything it chooses generally acceptable as money".