A good piece over at the Globe & Mail has economist Gary Shilling sharing some of his best and worst calls through the years. He’s a macro analyst, not a stock picker. And it was his macro view that helped him predict the end of inflation in the early 1980s and the collapse of the US housing bubble in the 2000s. I’ve had the chance to meet Gary and he’s as good a macro market economist as you’re going to see.
Whats his big call now?
Long-dated US government bonds
Unlike Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio and And Janus Henderson’s Bill Gross, Shilling doesn’t think bond yields have put in a secular low. Bond Guru Jeff Gundlach is also bond bearish. He says the 30-year bond will eventually hit 2% and the 10-year bond will get down to 1%. His view: “basically, with the Fed and the other central banks flooding the world with money, a rising tide lifts all boats.”
The suggestion you get from Shilling is that when the central banks all begin tightening, some of these ‘boats’ will run aground. And that’s when the bond bull market would re-assert itself. As always, the question is when. For now, its the equities bull that matters — so much so that BlackRock’s Larry Fink has joined Dalio in warning against sitting in cash.
Source: Invest Like a Legend: Gary Shilling – The Globe & Mail