2018

The US Treasury yield curve has resumed the flattening that caused bond markets worry last Fall. This is a negative signal for future growth. Curve flattening signals Fed tightening. With the primary risk overtightening. I expect a…

It seems like just a week ago, we were talking about synchronized global growth. Suddenly signs of deceleration are everywhere. And bond markets are feeling it. I don't see the economy falling out of bed though, barring an exogenous shock.…

Right now, many economists are talking about US growth through 2019 and a 3% unemployment rate. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius is one of them. The fly in the ointment is the Fed and its accelerated rate hike timetable.

The big news today is Donald Trump's sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Is the confrontational path that Donald Trump is choosing a precursor to an economic shock? Irrespective, I expect elevated volatility to remain a feature…

What if the Fed Model is wrong? Perhaps it's the change in the level of interest rates that matters, not the level. So irrespective of how high interest rates are, if the change, the delta, is large enough, it will produce an economic…

Even the most dovish Fed officials are onboard with a regime shift toward an accelerated rate hike timetable. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren has become hawkish. His remarks show that the Fed is now actively preparing markets for a…

Danielle's conclusion seems spot on: residential property in the US may not be in a bubble, but houses are certainly no bargain. Her view on housing is that housing affordability at the entry level has declined significantly.

There is no indication that average hourly earnings are moving sustainably higher. And therefore, there is no indication that average hourly earnings have any inflationary consequences.

I am re-starting Credit Writedowns Pro, my paid newsletter. So this is the first in a series of posts to you my readers that I need your help to get this project off the ground.

We are not at full employment. Don't give up on the people who have dropped out of the labor force. There are jobs waiting for them, if we allow this thing to run.