2018

Inflation is the controlling variable from here on out. Two rate hikes are effectively off the table for 2018 as a likely outcome. Fed projections will rise to four rate increases if inflation rises. And beyond 2018, expect Fed projections…

In his most recent interview, Jeffrey Gundlach says he sees stocks down for the year. He also outlines at what point he sees a bond bear market. Most ominously, however, he describes the Fed as being on autopilot, with this driving the…

Credit Writedowns has now reached the magic threshold of 10,000 posts! That's about 1,000 posts a year, or a little under 3 posts a day for 10 years. I need your support to keep it going though.

The FOMC is scheduled to release a policy statement tomorrow, with a press conference to follow. A quarter percent increase in the Fed funds target is guaranteed. But future Fed policy will depend on three Fed projections: the dot plot,…

Hyman Minsky's financial theory of investment is unique. He looks at an economy as having two inherently different price systems. There's one price system for goods and services. And there's another one for assets. The econometrics that…

In March, signs of inflation have subsided and bonds have rallied. Maybe the bond bear market Gross and Dalio foresee isn't actually going to happen. A lot of the future price action hinges on future monetary policy.

Market data don't speak to full employment right now. Inflation expectations would be rising. They don't speak to the 4 or 5% GDP growth Larry Kudlow expects either. Instead we should be wary of potential stagnation, even recession. And a…

Right before the inauguration, US President Trump tried to use Taiwan for negotiating leverage against China. This proved a non-starter. Trump is now unchained from moderating influences. So, the 'Taiwan Card' is back on the table.…

The Fed will play a key role in 2018 if the US economy slows. But the real unknown is geopolitical, much of it driven by Donald Trump. As Trump's poll numbers have remained low, as the stock market has begun to falter and Republican…

A recent literature has explored growing personal wealth inequality in countries around the world. This column explores the widening wealth gap between regions and across states in Europe. Using data going back to 1900, it shows that…