2018

A speech by Lael Brainard on economic headwinds turning to tailwinds suggests a regime shift is at hand at the Fed. Meanwhile, US President Trump is expected to announce tariffs on steel and aluminum. Mexico has already said it would…

The Fed as the monopoly supply of reserves can and will push the market until it cries uncle. Powell's testimony before Congress is the Fed Chairman's first warning shot. Caveat emptor.

Powell's testimony suggests the Fed will be more hawkish than the market expects. I believe long-term interest rates will grind higher. Look at the steepness of the yield curve for signs of over-tightening.

Political risk in Europe is centered on outcomes in Germany and Italy. First, the SPD could decide not to participate in another coalition with Merkel. And second, the 5-Star Movement won a plurality of the votes.

Regardless of what happens in NAFTA, we are going to see the Trump Administration put its 'America First' trade policy in play. Likely within the month, tariffs are coming.

The Federal Reserve has to be concerned about financial stability. When the credit markets become an integral facet sustaining asset markets, markets and the economy become interwoven in a bad way

There is a notable lack of long-run analyses of monetary systems and their stability. This column addresses this gap by looking at the monetary systems of major European states between 1300 and 1914. The evidence collected suggests that,…

Productivity is an important yardstick for measuring the value of goods and services workers. A recent study by McKinsey demonstrates that wages and demand are key to raising it.

The potential for a state and municipal fiscal and public pension crisis is a defining issue for the next downturn. Underfunding guarantees problems. The question is whether the next downturn crystallizes a crisis.

Pro-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies exacerbate the challenge that lies ahead. Although the world enjoys a synchronized expansion, the Great Financial Crisis may not be truly over until the downside of this business cycle is managed.