2018

The possibility of the Fed causing the curve to invert is real. We will have 12-18 months at most to see what happens economically.

With Europe, when the economy turns down, that’s when the acrimony will be greatest. And that’s when I would worry about really bad outcomes.

Normally, we think of trade as a story of spendthrift nations 'living beyond their means' and saver nations being productive. In this view, savers are virtuous and spenders are sinful. And the easiest way to see who the saints and sinners…

Given what I know about the Fed's reaction function, I believe pre-conditions favor Fed tightening irrespective of the slope of the yield curve.

As Wednesday begins, the question has to be: is the slowdown temporary or is it going to be more pronounced? And if it is pronounced, what do central banks do?

I have a lot of links on the Trump investigation. The key factor: while the Cohen warrant is Stormy Daniels related, it opens the whole Trump Organization to discovery.

Last week, Lael Brainard gave an important speech on financial stability. In effect, she said the Fed is likely to require increased capital buffers in the future. The key to if and when is in how large mitigating factors are in keeping…

Links on 'The Art of the Deal', Flint, Michigan, subprime auto, Facebook and more

Links on journalism, trade policy, subprime auto, Amazon, the Fed and much more

When China builds a trade surplus, it accumulates dollars. And it has to do something with those dollars. That means its purchase of US dollar assets is non-discretionary unless it revalues its currency.