2018

By Marc Chandler This post first appeared on Marc to Market Investors are seeing turmoil in the capital markets and a decline in US interest rates, including at the short-end.  Some are suggesting that market has become less confident of…

For now, think of Italy as a short-term risk-off trigger that has limited longer-term impact. To me, this presents a buying opportunity.

For about a week now, I have been writing posts on a website called Patreon. And I want to explain what I am doing and how you can help me.

As a member of the euro area, Italy has no monetary sovereignty. The only thing keeping its debt yields low is the implicit backstop of the ECB. But because of the political turmoil, this backstop is now in question. And Italy could default…

North Korea is sometimes (hyperbolically) referred to as a Chinese client state. And this seems to be the perception that Trump has developed as well.

I want to make the case for thinking about the next recession now. And I lot of this goes back to what I wrote last November about now being the most dangerous period in the business cycle. Here's the basic framing.

There are two ways to explain persistently high corporate profit margins. One interpretation is about inequity, and implicitly about corporatism masquerading as liberty. And the other is about network effects creating an age of winner take…

As the Fed raises rates, it will likely be surprised both by how fragile EMEs are and by the spillover impact Fed policy still has abroad

Policy divergence is the driver of market vulnerabilities. The longer the US stands alone in tightening policy, the greater the stress on the financial system.

Noah Smith notes that wages aren’t the only way Americans make money. Increasingly, income comes via nonwage compensation and government transfers.