2018

The US jobs number just came out and the figures were quite good. Two-year yields spiked on the news.

There are reasonable scenarios in which monetary policy continues to tighten, fiscal policy does not loosen and the economic trajectory slides down into stall speed, even before the full economic impact of tariffs are felt.

The latest report on weekly claims for unemployment insurance was released today showing 221,000 new claims. That takes the 4-week average to 222,250, which compares favourably to the year ago figure of 241,250. Some comments below I…

At some point, the ECB will likely be called into action. And they will give Italy an ultimatum on the fiscal front, just as they did with Greece.

I continue to believe that the bond bear market thesis is flawed. Money managers following it will lose a lot of money.

Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 30 May 2018 After I wrote the last post, Kent Willard made a really good comment about service sector jobs versus goods-producing jobs that I want to expand upon. He said "there's a growing…

The lower the headline unemployment rate number goes, the more likely the Fed is to guide to two rate hikes in 2018.

This post was originally published on Patreon on 30 May 2018 Yesterday I said that I believed the Italian meltdown presented a buying opportunity because it was not existential. And today, calm has returned, actually sooner than I had…

In December 2017 the US federal corporate tax rate on profits over $10 million was reduced from 35% to 21%. This column examines the plausibility of the Council of Economic Advisers’ estimates of how a cut in the corporate profit tax rate…

Fiscal policy space is limited first and foremost because of the threat of default. So governments are forced to act pro-cyclically.