2018

This post was first published on Patreon on 22 Jun 2018 I was just having an email exchange with Marshall Auerback and a hedge fund friend of ours about immigration. And I thought I would share some of my thoughts on this given what's…

The crisis is that the political center continues to weaken even though Europe, at least on paper, is enjoying a broad economic expansion. 

China's membership in the WTO has been a disaster for Western manufacturing, employment and wages.

This post was first published on Patreon on 20 Jun 2018 Last July, I was in Germany for a high school graduation. And as the only American family member in attendance, I got a lot of questions about Donald Trump. What I said then was that…

This is a 2019 outcome. For now, it's smooth sailing economically. But when this cycle turn, it will turn hard.

Increasing the pace of quantitative tightening in lieu of raising rates would give the Fed the opportunity to test what impact this has on the slope of the yield curve.

Once upon a time, Fed policy wasn't about finetuning macro outcomes. It was about maintaining the safety, siundness and stability of our banking and credit system.

Editor's note: A version of this post was originally published at my Patreon account on 13 Jun I have another more macro post on the Fed I am developing for later today. But I wanted to run this one by you because I am seeing a lot of…

We're in the midst of another technology bubble. And Tesla has benefitted greatly. When this bubble pops, where will Tesla be?

My expectation is for the Fed to raise rates, keep guidance the same but be slightly more hawkish.