Update on the US jobs data
I was out when the US jobs numbers came out on Friday. But they were good. And strangely, that's particularly because the unemployment rate increased.
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Yearly Archives
2018
Currencies to own as recession takes hold
This post first appeared on Patreon on 9 Jul 2018
Last week, I wrote up a macro bond play that involves three parts: currencies, spread differentials and default risk. I want to hone in on one of those three today: currencies. And here's…
Merkel called her Interior Minister’s bluff aka Germany is more stable than people think
As long as the EU remains vastly richer than countries in North and central Africa, there will be a flow of migrants to the EU. And Italy and Greece will get the lion's share of those migrants, fuelling anti-immigrant politics. With Eastern…
Playing the yield curve
Right now, we are still very much in the bull market phase. So the number of macro theses which make money are limited. US curve flattening and the prospect of Fed overtightening presents the best risk/reward.
GDPNow still near 4%, showing Q2 likely to be a monster quarter
The Fed is likely to continue to talk up the US economy. And I believe markets will react. With the yield curve at 32 basis points spread between 2- and 1-year Treasuries, we still have scope for further curve flattening.
Unilateral German action on the border is a game changer in Europe
Why does the German immigration spat matter? It's not just about refugees. It's about German hegemony and European cohesion. This post explains.
The politics of the German refugee crisis
Seehofer is and has been threatening to blow up the governing coalition for some time. But will he actually do it? Will blowing up the coalition backfire? No one knows. He certainly doesn't. So he may just be bluffing.
A brief note on the political crisis at the Fed
Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 2 Jul 2018
I saw a Twitter exchange this morning that reminded me that the Fed is facing a political crisis due to its quantitative easing program. And I think this will limit the Fed's…
The low-hanging fruit of macro investing
My own view is that getting the economics makes macro hard is problem number one. But just as big a problem is that macro investing is supposed to be contrarian. And contrarian bets work best when the world is in a panic and volatility is…
Continued economic expansion and curve flattening dominate US data flow
GDPNow for the second quarter is still at a breathtakingly high 4.5%. And it's beginning to look like we are going to come in well above 3% growth for the quarter. Consensus estimates are at 3.5%. Meanwhile the yield curve continues to…