2018

Back on March 1st, I told you to think of "Lael Brainard as the catalyst for Fed regime shift". Here's why: Back in late 2015, she and Fed Governor Dan Tarullo expressed caution about raising interest rates. And as the Fed increased the Fed…

China’s debt problems have emerged so much more rapidly and severely this year than in the past that a growing number of analysts believe that this may be the year that China’s economy breaks. There is no question that China will have a…

This is today's daily post. It's going to be all about technology. To start,  I want to focus in on a theme: the deflationary impact of the Internet. Since I have a lot of ideas here, I may make this into a thematic post later. 1 Big Thing:…

On Monday, I mentioned that White House Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow had said on CNBC that the US wants to build a “coalition of the willing” to fight China on trade. And so, the fear in China, I understand, is…

Housing bubbles may crowd out credit from other sectors, but they may also have a crowding-in effect by providing collateral to real estate-owning firms or generating attractive assets which banks can securitise and use to increase their…

Real quick here. Here's a chart tracking EM and S&P500 gains since the beginning of 2016: Source: Jamie McGeever How EM closes the performance gap Two questions: When and why should we expect EM and US stock markets to move in…

Since everyone is talking about the anniversary of the Lehman collapse and the financial crisis, now's a good time to think about the upside after crisis. In February 2009, I wrote a post based on some advice from veteran investor Jeremy…

Today is September 11th, a sad day for many people including myself. I lived in New York City when the terrorists attacked that day. And I witnessed the Twin Towers fall. A college friend who worked there was killed in the attack. I don't…

I want to run something by you that has been on my mind since Saturday because it hits on some of the themes I have been writing about in my journalism and media posts for the past couple of months. Suspension of disbelief and troll…

1 - More downside prices for Australia's housing market The Australian housing market is in the "bargain hunting" mode now. And that could add to downside losses. If you recall, the FT did a piece on the falling market, citing…