2018

I am looking forward into 2019 at this point. And if you look at the Fed's summary of economic projections from June, you see a median projection for the fed funds rate moving from 2.4% at the end of this year to 3.1% at the end of 2019. So…

Today's daily post will feature a number of articles on topics I think should be on your radar screen, with a few thoughts from me on each article. And I want to lead with the Department of Labor's 8:30am jobless claims release. 1 -…

The trade war between the US and China is now in full bloom. And it's likely to escalate. My view here has been that China is more vulnerable in this bust-up than the US. Even so, I don't expect the Chinese to back down. On the contrary,…

Because I have family connections to Germany, I always follow events there very closely. And one event on my radar screen has been the controversy surrounding Arsenal football star Mesut Özil, who has retired from international football…

Yesterday's daily featured four views on a potential global recession and financial crisis by the end of the year 2020. Nouriel Roubini had the view I think easiest to deconstruct because he lays out ten separate trigger points that could…

Is the fiscal debate political or market-driven? The eponymous debate in the US over government spending, debt and deficits is whether the issues are fundamentally market-driven or politically-motivated. For example, recently Trump economic…

1 Big Thing: Escalating trade war In today's daily post, I want to put the US - China trade war front and center and ask whether it matters to growth. The news, of course, is that US President Trump slapped tariffs on $200 billion worth of…

A month ago, 10-year yields were at 2.89%. And so, we were at a level that yields had been on February 20th despite two rate hikes in the intervening period. Since that time, rates have shot up 10 basis points, with the 10-year briefly…

Increasingly, prognosticators are talking about a recession in the United States by 2020. But not everyone is onboard with those predictions. Moreover, arguments vary both in terms of why a recession would take hold and in what the likely…

1 Big Thing: Politics are the driving force in fiscal debates The conventional wisdom is that Donald Trump is irresponsible for running up trillion dollar deficits which will limit fiscal space in the next downturn. In a good piece on how a…