2015

This post is a riff on a Paul Krugman post he titled “Partying Like It’s 1995”. I cam across Krugman’s post via Stephen WIlliamson, who makes some valid points about the Fed’s raising rates in 1994 that bear noting.

Tiger 5 - Grexit is inevitable

As Greece staggers under the weight of a depression exceeding that of the 1930s in the US, it appears difficult to see a way forward from what is becoming increasingly a Ponzi financed, extend and pretend, “bailout” scheme. In fact, there…

Bill Gross and David Rosenberg are two smart investors who represent the dichotomy in markets right now. Rosenberg doesn't see the Fed hiking rates until 2016, while Bill Gross points to June (link here). Which side of this debate you take…

In the last post at Credit Writedowns Pro on jobs, I promised to talk about currency issues but I didn't! here are two issues then: the increasing current account surplus in Germany and the strong dollar's effect on China. On Germany,…

Today, we got the latest jobs report from the US. And the data were mostly good, with non-farm payrolls expanding by 295,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 5.5%. The big takeaway from the jobs report was not that job growth is so…

Despite the crisis in Greece, I have been talking about rotating into Europe because I believe equities are priced more reasonably than the US and because fixed income assets will get a boost from QE. I want to talk a bit more about this…

I want to riff off a David Beckworth post in thinking about the problem in Europe and extend the discussion with some comments on the meltdown in Greece. The gist of what I intend to say is that the eurozone, as constructed, can never work…

Continuing where I left off last week, I am going to emphasize here that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise US interest rates unless the US economy slows materially. Meanwhile, the economic and market fundamentals are moving in the…

Finally, Greece is off the table as the big topic. So I have a few topics I want to cover and am going to put them altogether below. Let’s start with the U.S.