2015

The biggest takeaway from the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting was the reduction in the ‘normal’ rate of unemployment from the 5.2-5.5% range to a 5.0-5.2% range. While the Fed did remove its ‘patient’ language regarding…

I support what Yanis Varoufakis is trying to do in Greece. I see him as someone who is trying to change the debate in Europe from a narrow one about fiscal rectitude that brings out all sorts of nationalistic prejudices to a wider debate…

There is definitely a technology bubble brewing. And it will end badly. Some people are going to get rich though - and not necessarily undeservedly so. Some thoughts below I am going to make this very short. Valuations in the private…

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its next open market committee meeting and statement, I want to take a look at what US data are saying about the US economy. The main focus here is going to be the underlying pace of the US economy and…

One thing to keep in mind regarding both politics and shares in Europe is that upgrades to the growth outlook are coming and more should be expected. I see Germany doing particularly well given the decline in the euro. This is positive for…

Recently I told a few friends how frustrating the events unfolding in Greece are. It’s clear to most that the delays to a full restructuring in Greece reduces the net present value available to creditors. Yet, for political reasons, delay…

Yesterday, was a strong dollar day but it was also a euro weakness day as the euro recorded 12-year and 8-year lows versus the USD and GBP respectively. I think what we are seeing here is an emergence of the eurozone as a current account…

When the Greek bailout extension deal got done, I mentioned that in the press conference that followed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble made it clear he was looking to ‘sell’ the deal to the German parliament. And while he has…

The meltdown in Brazil is not exactly unexpected since one of my ten surprises for 2014 was that Brazil goes into recession. But I find the pace of the currency reaction alarming and we should be prepared for a crisis as a result. In the…

Two things I have written recently stand out as I contemplate what will happen in Greece. The first is that the institutions formerly known as the Troika had accepted Greece’s reform list sooner than I expected and that was positive. The…