2015

As Brent crude hits 11-year lows, it’s worth thinking about why it is so low and what the likely outcomes will be. Warren Mosler has a view I think works regarding the Saudis as swing producer, targeting quantity instead of price and I want…

I am uneasy about where we are in the economic and credit cycle and the accuracy of the Fed’s forward guidance. I think we are above stall speed now. But I also think global policy divergence, slowing earnings growth and poor capex numbers…

Last week, the high yield market seized up, in part due to jitters surrounding a high profile freeze of funds at the Third Avenue Focus Credit fund. The big problem for Third Avenue was energy high yield credit and the contagion from that…

Back in January, I said that as far as bond markets go, the convergence to zero would be a dominant issue as the deflationary macro environment made it difficult to raise interest rates. The US is trying to buck this trend, but in doing so,…

I have been pretty sanguine about the markets and the US economy. Yes, the commodities complex is worsening, but that doesn't mean this feeds through enough into other sectors to force the market down. And the real economy isn't at stall…

My argument has been that the US economy is not yet at stall speed and that recession is not on the horizon. However, I believe the US is slowing, and that, in conjunction with a strong dollar and the ongoing global growth slowdown, this…

Today's post is going to be a bit of a hodge podge because I didn't have a single theme to report on as I started out. If I had to give this post a title, the overarching theme would be "signals of slowing". What I am seeing is nothing to…

Mean Reversion of Wealth is one of the six structural mega-trends that we have identified. As is pretty obvious when looking at chart 2, wealth creation during the great bull market of 1981-2000 was quite extraordinary and, in our opinion,…

I don’t believe the jobs report today is indicative of an improving US economy. I believe it is a one-off that is so strong that it will be difficult for the Fed to overlook it. And this makes the likelihood of rate hikes that much greater,…

According to Jon Hilsenrath at the Wall Street Journal, ECB and PBOC easing aren’t obstacles to a Fed rate hike before year-end. Yet, the Wall Street Journal is running a headline as its top story showing that "U.S. Companies Warn of…