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Yearly Archives
2013
With Apple’s earnings declining, emphasis is on returning cash to investors
Late in January, I predicted why earnings contractions were coming for Apple in 2013. And since that time, Apple has indeed shown back-to-back quarters of earnings decline, with the announced earnings yesterday much lower than in the…
Anatomy of a bank run
In my last post, I argued that enforced separation of investment banking and commercial banking would not eliminate the need to provide central bank support to investment banks and other non-banks in the event of another Lehman-type…
Why I am relatively upbeat about Europe
I continue to anticipate a recovery in Europe in the second half of this year. The manufacturing PMI data that were released this morning suggest we could be in recovery before the end of the quarter. This makes me relatively upbeat about…
China: PMIs are even more bad news
The widely followed Markit PMI report of China's manufacturing for July was disappointing, coming in at an 11 months low.
Cooking the numbers in Argentina
Argentina's official economic growth surprised analysts with a 7.8% year over year jump in May. But can the growth numbers be trusted?
Tech links: 2013-07-19
I have a few brief comments here on the crop of technology earnings and stories that are coming out. The lead story is actually on Nokia's earnings because it captures the pricing pressure I believe is happening right across the technology…
On macroeconomic hubris and the Fed’s permanent zero rate policy
The Fed will be stuck at zero for a very long time, perhaps forever. Investors who are anticipating the Fed's tightening are premature in their assessment of when rate hikes can reasonably occur. Ben Bernanke and other Fed members have made…