Links: 2013-07-23
North America
Autos push Canadian retail sales to biggest monthly jump in 3 years in May | Financial Post
Housing Recovery Increasingly Prices Out First-Time Buyers – WSJ.com
Economic Casualties: ‘Missing Households’ – WSJ.com
“The number of Americans living in someone else’s home for economic reasons rose in the past year despite an improving labor market, posing a challenge for the housing market and the broader recovery.
The number of so-called missing households—representing adults who would be owning or renting their own home if household formation had stayed at normal rates since the recession—has increased 4% over the past year, according to an analysis for The Wall Street Journal. “
BBC News – US existing home sales dip unexpectedly in June
Pimco’s Gross Says Fed Will Tighten Policy in 2016 at Earliest – Bloomberg
Junk Bonds Jump as Bonds Boom – WSJ.com
From late last week
Why Fed Has Failed to Lower U.S. Unemployment – Bloomberg
Note that Shilling points to the money multiplier which is a backwards assessment of lending to reserves in an endogenous money framework. Also note this:
“Central banks can raise or lower short-term interest rates, and buy or sell securities. That’s it. Those actions are a long way from creating more jobs. In contrast, fiscal policy can be surgically precise, aiding the unemployed by extending and fattening unemployment benefits. “
Unattractive co-workers treated poorly: study | Toronto Star
Europe
EU public debt rockets | Business | The Guardian
8.750.000.000.000 Euro: Eurozone häuft Rekordschulden an – n-tv.de
The average government debt load for the 17 euro states as a percentage of GDP is 92%. Total outstanding debt: 8.75 trillion euros
UK public sector debt continues to rise – FT.com
“With borrowing remaining high, public sector net debt continues to rise rapidly, standing at 74.9 per cent of national income, compared with 71.6 per cent in the same period a year ago. “
ekathimerini.com | Greek debt at 160.5% of GDP in 2013 Q1 after biggest y-o-y rise in EU
“Greece’s public debt stood at 305.3 billion euros, or 160.5 percent of GDP, in the first quarter of this year after posting the highest rise in the European Union over the preceding 12 months, according to figures released by Eurostat on Monday.
This represented a slight rise from the fourth quarter of 2012, when the general government debt was at 303.9 billion euros, or 156.9 percent of GDP.”
Europe’s crisis states should fight back with a ‘debtors’ cartel’ – Telegraph
“Public debt levels are rocketing in almost every country of the eurozone periphery. Debt ratios are already crossing the point of no return in Portugal and Italy and are nearing the danger zone in Ireland. “
Spaanse recessie mildert – De Standaard
The Spanish central bank forecasts a 0.1% decline in GDP for Q2 2013 after a decline of 0.5% in Q1. Expectations were for a decline of 0.3%. I am less bearish than people like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Short-to-medium-term is better than they think.
Property bubble warning – prime London ‘overvalued and could fall 20pc’ – Telegraph
We Germans don’t want a German Europe | Wolfgang Schäuble | Comment is free | The Guardian
“The idea that Germans want to play a special role in Europe is a misunderstanding. We do not want a German Europe. We are not asking others to be like us. This accusation makes no more sense than the national stereotypes that lurk behind such statements.
The key task is to create conditions that are conducive to successful economic activity, in the context of global competition and demographic trends that pose a challenge for the whole of Europe. None of these things are German ideas. They are the tenets of forward-looking policies.”
Emerging Markets
Is the emerging market boom over? | Nouriel Roubini | Business | guardian.co.uk
“growth in most Brics and many other emerging markets has slowed sharply. Some factors are cyclical, but others – state capitalism, the risk of a hard landing in China, the end of the commodity super-cycle – are more structural. Thus, many emerging markets’ growth rates in the next decade may be lower than in the last – as may the outsize returns that investors realised from these economies’ financial assets (currencies, equities, bonds, and commodities).
Of course, some of the better-managed emerging-market economies will continue to experience rapid growth and asset outperformance. But many of the Brics, along with some other emerging economies, may hit a thick wall, with growth and financial markets taking a serious beating.”
Fighting the taper in China | FT Alphaville
Interesting thoughts on QE and China. I don’t have a view on this yet but it bears watching.
“China is leaking. It’s probably America’s fault. China is, after all, the the most exposed to the quantity effect of liquidity withdrawal due to QE tapering and may have the most difficulty dealing with it.”
Completion of world’s tallest building delayed until 2014 as costs soar | The Verge
China Slowdown Brings Ordos Bust as Li Grapples With Credit – Bloomberg
“Apartment sales have come to a virtual halt in the central district, real-estate agent Zhang Wei says. With the municipality’s revenue falling, the Inner Mongolian city that saw a surge in building during China’s record credit boom is now a showcase for the speculative financing Premier Li Keqiang is trying to curb. “
This was Ordos circa 2009. It took a while but we are finally seeing the bust:
https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/chinas-empty-city-the-emperor-really-has-no-clothes.html
Technology
Daniel Loeb makes $520m profit from sale of Yahoo! shares as he quits board – Telegraph
Apple’s iOS maintains dominance over Android with 63% mobile browsing share
Mobile Phones Show Increasing Addiction Levels – WSJ.com
You have to see this on South Korea and the prevalence of smartphones amongst children. Amazing stuff
NSA growth fueled by need to target terrorists – The Washington Post
“in the years after the Sept. 11 attacks, the NSA became the single most important intelligence agency in finding al-Qaeda and other enemies overseas, according to current and former counterterrorism officials and experts. “We Track ’Em, You Whack ’Em” became a motto for one NSA unit, a former senior agency official said.
The story of the NSA’s growth, obscured by the agency’s extreme secrecy, is directly tied to the insatiable demand for its work product by the rest of the U.S. intelligence community, military units and the FBI.”
Netflix Q2 2013 earnings show solid growth in revenue, a bit light on subscribers | The Verge
Samsung is ruler of its own Galaxy – Telegraph
Good, short piece on Samsung’s history. The contrarian in me sees interest like this from mainstream media as a contrarian indicator though. So it does make me think.
HTC One Google Play Edition (Unlocked) Review & Rating | PCMag.com
Samsung Galaxy S 4 Google Play Edition (Unlocked) Review & Rating | PCMag.com
“The Samsung Galaxy S 4 Google Play Edition isn’t really what Samsung wants you to buy, but it’s the purest form of Android on a phone anywhere—and that’s a great thing.”
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