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Yearly Archives
2013
In Spain, simply doing nothing is not an option!
The recent IMF proposals to help stimulate growth and job creation in Spain at least deserve serious consideration. What the IMF are saying is that if you leave the situation as it is then growth will not be sufficient to make any…
QE Tapering, MBS volatility, and convexity hedging via Treasuries
While yields on treasury notes and bonds have risen across the board in 2013, the jump in rates has been uneven. The 5-10-year rates - the "belly" of the curve - have increased materially more than other maturities.
Evidence mounts that China has escaped the worst of emerging markets rout
The latest data seem to suggest that China has so far been able to elude the severe economic headwinds faced by other emerging economies. Signs of stability have been around for a few weeks, but the first set of direct evidence came from…
Inflation, investing, bond prices and monetary policy
Over the past few years, investors who have expected aggressive monetary policy to produce high levels of consumer price inflation and have invested accordingly have been disappointed. The right question goes to why consumer price inflation…
Spain: The recession may be ending but the crisis continues
What follows is an interview I did over the summer with the Madrid based publication The Local.
Tapering, Chinese stabilization, European recovery, Japanese investors
We update our views on the main big picture drives for financial market:
(1) Fed tapering
(2) The stabilization of the Chinese economy
(3) The cyclical recovery in Europe
(4) The increase in Japanese purchases of foreign bonds
U.S. house price affordability is very sensitive to interest rates
We've had a great deal of movement in the NAR US Housing Affordability Index recently. The index is meant to measure homebuyers' ability to finance house purchases and given some recent events, it's worth taking a look at what the index is…