2013

Below are the video and some excerpts from a recent interview BlackRock CEO Larry Fink did with Bloomberg Television. The interview here is mostly about the effect of the government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis on the economy and…

News for 17 Oct 2013

Summary: Below are some brief thoughts on the consequences of the US government shutdown and its aftermath. In general, I believe the consequences are more likely to be political and long-term without any significant short-term implications…

A last minute deal was struck that re-opens the US federal government and removes the immediate threat of default, but rather than turn the attention from the US, the focus has shifted from fiscal policy to monetary policy. In particular,…

The Federal Open Market Committee has used various forms of forward guidance to influence the views of businesses, investors and households about where monetary policy is likely to be headed. This column by the President of the San…

The recent downturns in consumer confidence and spending are likely being exacerbated by the controversy in Washington; but it is clear that the consumer was already feeling the pressure of the surge in interest rates, higher energy and…

News links for 16 Oct 2013

Summary: I expect the debt ceiling impasse to be overcome today as a result of a Senate-brokered deal. With this manufactured crisis out of the way, we can concentrate on earnings and on the economy. While US growth is on track, I expect…

There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crises, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on…

News links for 15 Oct 2013