Links: 2013-10-15
T-Mobile shows upside of M&A skepticism : Columbia Journalism Review
“Over the last five years, Post-PC devices have displaced conventional Windows PCs so rapidly that Microsoft’s dominance over personal computing has plummeted from roughly 90 percent share to less than a third.”
Snowden’s CIA bosses suspected he’d leak files in ‘09, didn’t warn NSA | Ars Technica
DoJ: If we can track one American, we can track all Americans | Ars Technica
“The government’s opposition to a new trial relies heavily on a recently declassified opinion from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, which concluded that “where one individual does not have a Fourth Amendment interest, grouping together a large number of similarly situated individuals cannot result in a Fourth Amendment interest springing into existence ex nihilo.”
In an e-mail interview for this piece, Hanni Fakhoury, a staff attorney at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, said the government’s arguments are consistent with how it has justified these programs in other places. “But one of the most interesting aspects of the response in the Moalin case is… to argue there’s no standing.” The government has always argued that there’s no reasonable expectation to privacy in information handed to a third party like your phone or Internet provider, commonly referred to as the “third-party doctrine.” But Fakhoury says that in this case, the government is taking an even more aggressive stance. In essence, its argument is that “these records aren’t even Moalin’s to begin with so he can’t complain.””
Top sites (and maybe the NSA) track users with “device fingerprinting” | Ars Technica
Obamacare Foes Using Shutdown Echo South’s Nullifiers – Bloomberg
“The current fight, a budget standoff that threatens the creditworthiness of the U.S, has vestiges of the secession from the union that started in South Carolina and led to the Civil War. It carries echoes of the nullification crisis over tariffs in the 1830s and the so-called massive resistance movement to oppose desegregation of public schools in the 1950s.
In each of those fights, led by Democrats who then dominated the region, Southerners said they were overrun by Northerners hostile to their culture in ways that undermined their freedom. Now, their heirs are Republicans and, while the region’s prevailing party affiliation has changed, the basic orthodoxy has remained.
“I think there are continuities, obviously, between the Tea Party today and the longer tradition of Southern politics that dates back upward of two centuries,” said Stephen Mihm, a professor of history at the University of Georgia in Athens. “
“am going back to T Mobile. Not because AT&T sucks. It doesn’t. Not because AT&T costs me a lot of money. It does.
I am going back out of principle. T-Mobile is customer friendly. The others are not.”
Justin Amash, Michele Bachmann, Marsha Blackburn, Mo Brooks, Paul Broun, John Carter, John Culberson, Ron DeSantis, Scott DesJarlais, Jeff Duncan, John Fleming, Scott Garrett, Phil Gingrey, Louis Gohmert, Tom Graves, Vicky Hartzler, Tim Huelskamp, Jim Jordan, Steve King, Raul Labrador, Tom Massie, Tom McClintock, Mark Meadows, Randy Neugebauer, Matt Salmon, Mark Sanford, Steve Scalise, Dave Schweikert, Steve Stockman, Marlin Stutzman, Randy Weber, Ted Yoho. “
T-Mobile Hands Consumers a Pleasant Shocker – NYTimes.com
“You get all of this automatically. You don’t have to sign up for anything before you go. You don’t have to sign up for anything at all. You just travel to Europe and know that your texts and e-mail are going to be free.
Now, two footnotes. First, those T-Mobile prices cover you in 115 countries — according to the company, the ones that represent 95 percent of Americans’ travel. Note, however, that you don’t ever have to worry about what country you’re calling to; once you arrive, every call is 20 cents a minute to every country on earth.
Including back home.
Second, all that free Internet is for slower speeds, suitable for Facebook, Twitter, e-mail and Web pages. “
IMF Sees Greece Missing Target – Real Time Economics – WSJ
Given Greece’s weak export capabilities, a budget magnitude of this size implies a negative balance in the private sector, one that only be achieved via deflationary policy. It is pure madness.
“The IMF projects in its latest Fiscal Monitor report that Greece’s budget surplus will only hit 1.1% of gross domestic product next year instead of the 1.5% of GDP target outlined in its bailout terms with the IMF and the euro zone.”
Cristina Fernández, Argentina’s fading populist – FT.com
“The country’s president has drawn little sympathy in spite of ill-health”
Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon: Excerpt From ‘The Everything Store’ by Brad Stone – Businessweek
A must-read look into the internal culture of Amazon
Washington drives U.S. consumer sentiment to nine-month low | Reuters
If the debt ceiling impasse is lifted, this won’t matter
“Ever wondered what it’s like to work at Amazon? Or to be one of its competitors or potential acquisitions? Or even to be related to founder Jeff Bezos? Look no further than this lengthy piece by Brad Stone, whose book on Bezos and his company comes out in later this month (natch, that’s an Amazon link). On my first question, Bezos isn’t a particularly nice boss. Amazon’s culture is “notoriously confrontational,” with Bezos regularly embarking on what employees call “nutters,” which largely consist of him shooting off phrases like “Are you lazy or incompetent?” “I’m sorry, did I take my stupid pills today?” and “If I hear that idea again, I’m gonna have to kill myself.” And yet many people who work there thrive in this environment and generally find that Bezos is right on target when he flippantly dismisses an idea or prioritizes a customer complaint over being civil to his underlings.”
The economics of Janet L. Yellen | Gavyn Davies
“When Ben Bernanke became Fed Chairman in 2006, his collection of speeches and academic papers turned out to be extremely relevant to the decisions he would take in office, especially after 2008. The same is likely to be true of his nominated successor who, pending her confirmation by the Senate, has now become the de facto voice of the Fed.
Google Scholar lists dozens of entries under the name Janet L. Yellen. These citations outline an extremely well considered economic philosophy that has developed along a consistent path since the early 1980s. A 67-year old leopard is unlikely to change its spots.”
Cristina Fernández health scare symbolises Argentina’s ills – FT.com
“the 60-year-old leader’s delicate health has exposed the institutional fragility of her highly centralised regime, where power is concentrated among a coterie of loyal advisers, and underlined the limits of her ability to govern – even as Argentina faces a crescendo of economic problems that need to be addressed.
“It feels like the beginning of the end,” said Walter Molano, strategist at BCP Securities and author of an Argentine economic history In the Land of Silver. “The economy is on a knife-edge; so too the population.””
What Saying ‘I’ Says About You – WSJ.com
“Surprising new research from the University of Texas suggests that people who often say “I” are less powerful and less sure of themselves than those who limit their use of the word. Frequent “I” users subconsciously believe they are subordinate to the person to whom they are talking. “
Why Liars Tend to Say “I” Less Often
“When someone is lying about something, they’re usually unconsciously trying to distance themselves from the situation to make the lie more tolerable to tell. As The Wall Street Journal points out, this means that when people lie they tend to use the word “I” a lot less.”
How NSA breakthrough may allow tracking of “burner” cell phones | Ars Technica
NSA collects millions of e-mail address books globally – The Washington Post
“The National Security Agency is harvesting hundreds of millions of contact lists from personal e-mail and instant messaging accounts around the world, many of them belonging to Americans, according to senior intelligence officials and top-secret documents provided by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden.
The collection program, which has not been disclosed before, intercepts e-mail address books and “buddy lists” from instant messaging services as they move across global data links. Online services often transmit those contacts when a user logs on, composes a message, or synchronizes a computer or mobile device with information stored on remote servers. “
Gold Slides to 3-Month Low as Silver Declines on U.S. Optimism – Bloomberg
I plan to write up something brief on gold. After the debt ceiling crisis is over, we may see a period of rising inflation and that would be moderately bullish for gold.
ekathimerini.com | Greek industrial output falls 7.2 pct y/y in August
Note the downward revision because that is a bad sign. While the Greek economy may stabilize in 2014, manufacturing has a long way to go and does not look like a source of (export) strength.
“Greek industrial output fell 7.2 percent year-on-year in August after a downwardly revised 7.7 percent drop in the previous month, the country’s statistics service (ELSTAT) said on Thursday.”
ekathimerini.com | Greece sells 1.625 bln euros of 3-month T-bills, yield drops
Greece is still selling 3-month paper at a 4 percent yield. There is no way their debt burden is sustainable under these conditions. Another restructuring is coming in 2014.
The default has already begun | Felix Salmon
“The best way to look at this, I think, is that there’s a spectrum of default severities. At one end, you have the outright repudiation of sovereign debt, a la Ecuador in 2008; at the other end, you have the sequester, which involves telling a large number of government employees that the resources which were promised them will not, in fact, arrive. Both of them involve the government going back on its promises, but some promises are far more binding, and far more important, than others.
Right now, with the shutdown, we’ve already reached the point at which the government is breaking very important promises indeed: we promised to pay hundreds of thousands of government employees a certain amount on certain dates, in return for their honest work. We have broken that promise. Indeed, by Treasury’s own definition, it’s reasonable to say that we have already defaulted: surely, by any sensible conception, the salaries of government employees constitute “legal obligations of the US“.”
Watch what China does with US debt, not what it says – Telegraph Blogs
“Talk, talk, talk.
China’s soaring reserves expose the truth. (And no, excess reserves are not a sign of strength, they are a sign of a deformed economy). Beijing is not in fact opening up its capital accounts and preparing to let the market decide the exchange rate.
The good news for China is that is no longer an emerging market in any meaningful sense. It was a safe haven during the great summer squall that hit India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, Ukraine, Serbia, et al. China did not suffer capital flight. It suffered a surge of very unwelcome capital inflows.
But there is a darker side to this. For all the talk of reform, China still refuses to give up its mercantilist trade policy. It is holding down the yuan to cling onto global market share and protect the wafer-thin margin of its exporters, not always successfully.”
Portugal Looks to Issue Bonds in Coming Months – WSJ.com
“Portugal is seeking to borrow more from investors in coming months as it returns to economic growth and works to wean itself off international aid, Finance Minister Maria Luis Albuquerque said Saturday.
The European countries that received bailouts from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the European Central Bank are sizing up investor sentiment in the debt markets, a key measure of whether they have regained a firm enough financial footing to exit the bailout programs. Ireland is the first country scheduled to regain its financial independence later this year by exiting the programs, followed by Portugal in mid-2014.
“We have to have full market access before then,” Ms. Albuquerque said in her first media interview.”
Rival airline attacks Alitalia rescue as illegal | Reuters
This is the Japanese policy of bailing out banks/airlines, etc. It’s hard not to do this when the lost jobs mean lost votes but it is not the way forward.
“A leading European airline group denounced Italian plans to rescue Alitalia as illegal on Monday, as shareholders were due to vote on a capital increase to keep the near-bankrupt carrier flying.”
Asmussen rejects Athens’ call for ECB to roll over Greek bonds | Reuters
“The European Central Bank cannot roll over Greek bonds as this goes against a ban on financing governments, a senior ECB policymaker said on Monday, dashing Athens’ hopes it will help plug a funding gap next year through such a move.”
Franco-German divisions cloud efforts to fix broken banks | Reuters
“France is leading a group including Spain and Italy in demanding that the ESM, established to provide financial help to euro zone governments, act as a clear backstop for unstable banks in the euro area, in time for when the European Central Bank’s health test results are announced some time in 2014.
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, along with the Netherlands and Finland want conditions attached to any ESM involvement to prevent the clean-up costs being foisted on them.
“What Germany fears … is … a loss of political control over its banks, which means in the final analysis a loss of sovereignty,” Moscovici wrote in “Battles to resurrect France”.”
Analysis: Late Fed taper may do more harm than good for emerging nations | Reuters
“By postponing the inevitable, the U.S. central bank took pressure off emerging markets to implement reforms that could make them more resilient when the Fed does eventually reverse policy.
“It’s very easy to get addicted to high global liquidity,” Guillermo Ortiz, chairman of Mexico’s largest locally owned bank, Grupo Financiero Banorte, told Reuters.
“I think it’s better to bite the bullet now to avoid a more painful withdrawal for EM countries in the future,” said Ortiz, who has served as both finance minister and central bank chief for Mexico.”
EU quota for 40pc of women on boards moves step closer – Telegraph
“The push to ensure that women occupy 40pc of non-executive board seats on public companies across Europe moved a step closer after two key European Parliament committees voted in favour of the move. “
Germany’s coalition talks ‘snagged’ on Irish issues – Independent.ie
“”I’m very sorry for Ireland, but the corporate tax rate is simply to low,’’ SPD general secretary Andrea Nahles told reporters in Berlin.
The comments came after the German media reported last week that early coalition talks between the social democratic SPD and Mrs Merkel’s conservative CDU were snagged on Irish issues.
The SPD is also completely opposed to the direct bank recapitalisation of troubled European banks through a new bailout mechanism called the European Stability Mechanism.
Last week’s reports that the SPD wants Ireland to hike corporate tax sparked an angry response from Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin who urged Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore to tell SPD leaders that “posturing on the future of Ireland’s corporation tax regime is unacceptable and must stop”.”
Grand Coalition Increasingly Likely in Round Two of Merkel Talks – SPIEGEL ONLINE
“Angela Merkel’s conservatives are holding their second round of preliminary coalition talks with the Social Democrats Monday and there’s speculation that the parties could reach a deal sooner than expected. A government could be formed by mid-November. “
ekathimerini.com | No imminent decision in Greece, says Rehn; no debt rollover, says ECB
“Ahead of the Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg on Monday, European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn has repeated that a decision on further financing for Greece are still a few weeks away, while discussions about possible debt relief for Athens will not take place until next year.”
Spain’s encouraging debt sale taps into optimism – FT.com
“Spain sold its first 30-year bond in four years as the country’s treasury attempted to take advantage of the buoyant appetite for European periphery bonds to extend the average duration of its debt.
The last time Spain sold a bond of such long maturity was in September 2009, when the country was still rated double A plus by Standard & Poor’s, only one notch below the top grade possible.”
BBC News – Eurozone industrial output strengthens in August
“Factories in the 17-country bloc saw output rise by 1% in the month, which was better than analysts’ forecasts.
The figures showed that the highest increase was registered in Portugal, where output grew by 8.2%.
Europe’s economic powerhouse, Germany, saw output rise 1.8%, while French output increased by 0.2% following three consecutive months of decline.
However, output in Italy fell by 0.3%. This was the second decline in a row, as Italy’s economy continued to falter.”
Euro-Zone: Industrieproduktion wächst so stark wie seit zwei Jahren nicht – SPIEGEL ONLINE
This German-language article points out that the increase in industrial production has become more broad-based. Whereas it was mostly Germany as recently as the Spring, Portugal was the country that showed the greatest promise in the last round of data. The numbers are the best in the eurozone in two years.
French far right sweeps to victory in local election – FT.com
“The FN, riding on a wave of recession-fuelled disaffection with the two mainstream parties, is mounting its biggest campaign to date to make gains in both the local elections and the European elections that follow in May.
Last week an opinion poll for the first time put the FN ahead in the running for the European poll, with 24 per cent backing the party, giving it a two-point lead over the UMP and five points over the Socialist party.”
Ireland: Back on the market – FT.com
“Although the country is about to leave the bailout, concerns about its recovery persist “
Ireland on course to exit bailout in December – FT.com
“Dublin will exit its international bailout on schedule on December 15 and will not be forced back into one, Enda Kenny, Ireland’s prime minister has said.
But it remains unclear whether Ireland will apply for a precautionary credit line from its international lenders as an insurance policy in case of unforeseen difficulties in the months and years ahead.
“The economic emergency will be over,” Mr Kenny told party members at a weekend conference. “Yes, there are still fragile times ahead. There’s still a long way to go. But at last, the era of the bailout will be no more.””
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