2013

Summary: According to press accounts, the Senate could vote on a plan to end the government shutdown and avert a default on U.S. government debt as soon as tonight. Nonetheless, we are clearly in the 11th hour and must consider default a…

News links for 14 Oct 2013

Summary: Recently, Niall Ferguson reminded us of the eurozone pessimism of 2011 and 2012 in a recent polemic against Paul Krugman. Without getting into the Krugman-Ferguson war, I want to hone in on this subject because I think it tells us…

While data is difficult to come by, there are signs that the sharp drop in consumer confidence since the federal government shutdown (see post) is translating into weaker consumer spending.

As the US government shutdown continues, the risk of default grows. Below are some thoughts on why this has played out as it has and what the outcome may be.

News links for 9 Oct 2013

US CDS is based on treasuries (linked to a specific security - the co-called "reference obligation"), which according to the official offering document (see offering circular here), do not have a "grace period". Under such circumstances…

News links for 4 Oct 2013

The US dollar is narrowly mixed against major and emerging market currencies. Comments by House Speaker Boehner that he will form a majority bloc to avoid a default by the Federal government is being understood two ways.

News links for 3 Oct 2013