2012

The Economist: "Over the past 30 years, China’s total fertility rate—the number of children a woman can expect to have during her lifetime—has fallen from 2.6, well above the rate needed to hold a population steady, to 1.56, well below that…

The rump Dexia now owned by the Belgian government is a structurally loss-making enterprise that will cost the Belgian government 2 billion in deficits every year from 2014.

In the week just ended, the US Department of Labor is reporting the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims as 386,000. While this is a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000 it is well above the…

Today's big news was the bond auction in Spain. Spain's auction went off without a hitch but at a cost. Spain sold 2.5 bln euros ($3.3 billion USD). The Spanish Treasury sold a 1.1 bln euro bond maturing 31 Oct 2014 (average yield: 3.463%,…

Most of the focus these days is on Spain and the periphery - and for good reason. Spain's bond yields are putting it into a potential debt death spiral from which the only escapes are a bailout or default. Moreover, the whole of the…

I think this should be obvious to everyone by now, but peak oil is a clear factor in the Argentina/Spain oil crisis. Here's what happened.

Spain is involved in two stories today that point to the difficulties that surround sovereign governments that are overindebted in foreign currency. There are a ton of Spanish-language links for that reason.

Quantitative easing hasn't worked to lower interest rates in the past but has caused a huge uproar from those opposed to the policy in the US. QE is therefore both ineffective and politically-charged. But a lot of people still expect it.

I thought I would mix it up a bit with this clip of a Volkswagen factory in Dresden, Germany. The factory is very cool.

In this first post of a series of 3-5 posts, I try to present the building blocks of the argument as I see them and answer the question of why the traditional view on the liquidity trap does not apply in the current situation.