2012

The string of developments has encouraged risk-off behavior. Equity markets are lower. Core bonds are higher. The high beta currencies, such as the freely traded emerging market currencies, the Australian and Canadian dollars, the euro,…

Seven weeks of government negotiations in the Netherlands to agree on new austerity measures failed on Saturday suggesting the German-led program for Europe is about to take head of another government and this is on the eve of the first…

The Fed is out of bullets on interest rate policy and has turned to other nonconventional measures like quantitative easing. Excess reserves have piled up as a result. What does this mean for inflation and the economy?

The bullish argument that houses are now generally affordable also does not hold up on closer examination. As we have repeated ad infinitum the average household has too much debt and is in the midst of deleveraging rather than taking on…

In last week's weekly newsletter, I explained why Spain was in big trouble. Today I want to present the full context euro zone-wide and why there will be more sovereign defaults to come in the euro zone. This will be a very comprehensive…

I ran across three separate articles on peak oil at well-regarded financial news sites today: The Economist, The Financial Times and Le Figaro. I thought I'd give you a run down of what they were saying and what it means for the economy and…

Since the Great Financial Crisis began, Austrian house prices have zoomed at a pace well above the rate of inflation and the rate of rentals. The price action and other anecdotes make this sound suspiciously like a bubble. The same has…

Jeremy Grantham: "The central truth of the investment business is that investment behavior is driven by career risk. In the professional investment business we are all agents, managing other peoples’ money. The prime directive, as Keynes…

"What made Instagram worth $1 billion to Facebook?" When asked this question recently, I responded with an immediate, "Nothing." I'm not usually so terse or emphatic with my answers, as any longtime reader knows. But in this case,…

The French premium over Germany rose today to a three-month high. Rumors of a rating downgrade proved wide of the mark, but it reflects the market's anxiety about the outlook for France going forward.